National Supply Pressure Index
A composite score summarising whether upstream supply conditions may push Australian pump prices higher or lower.
Supply Pressure Index
Moderate
Score 34/100
↑ Rising
+3 pts this week
Moderate supply pressure suggests wholesale costs are relatively stable this week, but rising retail velocity means pump prices may still climb in the short term.
For Melbourne drivers, this national score is the backdrop, not the bowser price — local retail competition and the weekly price cycle still decide what you pay on a given day. Compare today's board against the trend by checking the live fuel map or your suburb directory listing.
Score components
- Retail price velocity (7-day metro ULP change)38/100 · 30% weight
- Import volume trend (MoM petrol/diesel)32/100 · 25% weight
- Fuel security days-of-cover vs minimum28/100 · 20% weight
- Port congestion proxy (notices + import lag)35/100 · 15% weight
- Wholesale proxy (benchmark + AUD trend)40/100 · 10% weight
Related intelligence
See how this score relates to stockholding cover on the fuel security status page, or current disruptions on the petrol shortage tracker.
Frequently asked questions
- How often does the supply pressure index update?
- The index refreshes daily from the underlying component data — see the score components below and the full methodology for how each weighting is calculated.
- What does a high vs low supply pressure score mean?
- A higher score signals upstream conditions (refining, freight, currency, and supply components) that tend to push Australian pump prices higher; a lower score signals conditions more likely to ease prices. It is a directional signal, not a price forecast.
Prices in affected areas
Updated 10 Mar 2026 · Full methodology