A timeline of significant Melbourne petrol price events and the structural drivers behind long-term price trends. Understanding history helps you contextualise current prices and anticipate future movements.
Melbourne unleaded prices fell sharply in April–May 2020 as lockdown measures reduced travel demand dramatically. Average unleaded briefly dropped below 100¢/L in some Melbourne suburbs — a generational low. Prices recovered through late 2020 as restrictions eased and crude oil stabilised.
Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 triggered a sustained crude oil price spike. Melbourne unleaded reached record highs above 220¢/L through March–May 2022. The Federal Government's temporary fuel excise cut (halved from April to October 2022) provided partial relief before expiry restored full excise.
After the excise cut expired, Melbourne prices adjusted upward but moderated through 2023 as global oil markets softened. The typical Melbourne weekly cycle became more pronounced, with mid-week lows dipping below 170¢/L and Friday peaks exceeding 200¢/L in high-cycle weeks.
Middle East tensions, OPEC+ production management, and exchange rate pressure on the AUD kept Melbourne prices in a wide band. The weekly cycle remained the primary driver of intra-month variation, with some suburbs showing 30¢/L swings between cycle troughs and peaks.
Melbourne prices continue to follow a structured weekly cycle. Average unleaded across Melbourne fluctuates in the 170–210¢/L band, with significant suburb-level variation driven by local competition density and distance from major fuel terminals.
The international crude oil price is the primary determinant of Australian pump prices. Australia imports most of its refined fuel, so movements in Brent Crude translate directly into terminal gate price changes within 2–4 weeks.
Because crude oil is priced in US dollars, a weaker Australian dollar increases the effective cost of imported fuel. A 5% AUD depreciation typically adds 4–6¢/L to wholesale costs, all else equal.
The Federal Government levies a fuel excise on petrol and diesel. As of 2026, the full excise rate applies and is indexed to CPI. Excise represents a fixed per-litre cost that does not vary with oil prices.
The Singapore refining margin — the spread between crude oil cost and refined product value — affects the wholesale price of petrol shipped to Australian terminals. Tight refining capacity can widen this margin significantly.
Local competition between fuel retailers drives the weekly price cycle. Suburbs with multiple major brands within close proximity tend to have sharper cycle troughs as retailers compete for volume during low-price windows.
